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One index. Many markets. One continuously priced position.

An Agōn index is a tokenized portfolio of prediction-market positions built around a single team. Instead of pricing the fund from a single outcome, Agōn continuously values every position the fund holds and combines them into one per-unit price. The result is a single price that represents the current market value of the entire season.

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The architecture

At its core, an Agōn index has three layers:

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1. The Index

It holds USDC and positions across the underlying prediction markets. Investors own units representing a proportional claim on the indexes assets.

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2. The Markets

You deploy into individual prediction markets on Polymarket. These positions span three sleeves: Game Markets — 80%, Props & Awards — 8%, and Championship — 12% *The exact allocation may vary by league and index.

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3. The Pricing Engine

Agōn’s pricing engine continuously tracks an indexes cash balance with the marked value of its open positions. This produces the price at which units can be bought or sold.

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How the fund gets its price

A fund’s value is fundamentally the sum of what it owns. At any point in time: Fund Price = Cash + Value of Open Positions To calculate the value of each open position, Agōn takes: Number of contracts held × Current market price The total is then divided by the number of fund units outstanding: Unit Price = (Cash + Σ Position Value) ÷ Units Outstanding This means the price of an Agōn unit is not determined by a separate sportsbook or an internal estimate. It is derived from the value of the underlying positions and the fund’s actual cash balance.

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Example

Imagine an Agōn Index has: $20,000 in USDC 10,000 contracts in Market A, currently priced at $0.60 5,000 contracts in Market B, currently priced at $0.40 The fund’s marked assets are: 20,000+(20,000 + (6,000) + (2,000)=2,000) = 28,000 If there are 280 fund units outstanding: Price = 28,000÷280=28,000 ÷ 280 = 100 per unit The fund therefore has a current unit price of $100. If Market A subsequently moves from $0.60 to $0.70, the fund’s price increases because the underlying position has become more valuable, or if the Market A resolves to “Yes”, the price increases as Market A moved to $1.00.

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Why the price moves

An Agōn Index does not simply move when a team wins. It moves when the market’s expectation of the team changes. Because positions are at market odds, the index’s open positions appreciate when the team’s eventual performance exceeds what was priced into those markets. A heavily favored team winning a game it was already expected to win may have little effect on the index. An underdog winning a game it was expected to lose can have a much larger effect. The same applies to injuries, lineup changes, playoff positioning, player performance, and changes in championship probability. Agōn prices performance relative to expectation.

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From cash to positions

When a index launches, investor capital initially sits as USDC inside the fund. The capital is not immediately deployed. New prediction markets can be thin, volatile, and expensive to enter. Instead, the deployment engine waits until a market meets predefined liquidity conditions. These can include:
  • Sufficient market depth
  • Meaningful trading volume
  • A stable mid-price
  • An acceptable bid-ask spread
Once a market passes these gates, the fund deploys capital according to its target allocation. This approach is designed to reduce slippage and avoid establishing large positions in immature markets. Agōn does not take the other side on these transactions.

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Continuous rebalancing

A season is not static. As individual markets resolve, the fund receives proceeds back into its cash balance. The fund therefore evolves throughout the season: Cash → New Positions → Markets Resolve The investor never has to manage these individual trades. They simply own the index.

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Minting and redemption

Because the index is continuously valued, units are issued and redeemed against the index’s current price. When a new investor enters: USDC → Index → New Units When an investor exits: Units → Index → USDC The corresponding units are burned and the investor receives the value of their position based on the current price. Because units are minted and burned at price, new subscriptions and redemptions do not dilute existing holders.

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On-chain by design

The architecture is built around on-chain settlement. Underlying positions are held and settled through Polymarket. The holdings, cash, and unit supply can be reconciled against observable market and on-chain data, allowing the value to be independently verified rather than relying on an opaque internal price. The result is a simple interface built on top of a more complex system: Many markets → portfolio → On-chain assets → One continuously priced unit

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The result

A traditional prediction market gives you exposure to one outcome. A parlay gives you exposure to multiple outcomes that must all hit. An Agōn Index gives you exposure to one team’s entire season. The underlying markets remain individual positions, but Agōn packages them into a single asset whose value continuously reflects the team’s performance against market expectations. One team. Many markets. One price. Own the season, not the bet.